99.4% → 4.7%
Simulated false-positive risk under the null (reuse vs confirmation)
Avoiding circularity in enriched Alzheimer biomarker designs
Methods preprint on two common failure modes in biomarker trials and trial-ready cohorts: estimand drift from enrichment/range restriction and selection–inference reuse (“double dipping”). Includes an audit of 72 studies (10/72 with possible/definite non-independence) plus mechanistic simulations, with practical safeguards for design and reporting.



